FUME: Future migration scenarios for Europe

Horizon Europe

Ukraine, Tunisia, Senegal, Iraq, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Denmark

12 January 2019 –

31 May 2023

About

Understanding the patterns, motivations and modalities of migration at the international, regional and local level.

FUME migration and population models show that the EU will remain a region with positive net migration in the future. Migration is key for future demographic developments in Europe.
Migration is also highly volatile, influenced by wars, pandemics, economic and other crises that are difficult to predict. Policymakers should expect and plan for volatile migration trends in the future.
Climate change may play a greater role in shaping future migration trends if it leads to greater inequality between world regions and affects economic growth and income opportunities in less developed countries.
There is a lack of reliable migration statistics. Despite the importance of migration for demographic development in Europe, we still face challenges in measuring and analysing it comprehensively. More efforts and funding are needed to combine different newer and more traditional types of migration statistics. In addition, it is important that information about shifting migration flows in crisis situations can be provided at very short notice.

Policy Brief – key findings on how to improve the evidence for European migration policy making
Summary of case study reports – drivers and trajectories of migration to Europe
Storymaps – visualizing future migration